At the global level, available data often show two parallel trends: the prevalence of tobacco cigarette smoking is gradually decreasing, while the use of electronic cigarettes (vaping) is increasing or remaining high in a number of countries. It is important to clarify a methodological point: most "official" surveys measure the share of cigarette smokers and the share of electronic cigarette users separately, this does not always directly answer the question "who exactly switched from cigarettes to vape", because there are also "double" users (both cigarettes and vape). However, when the proportion of vapers increases and the proportion of smokers decreases (and sometimes vaping even overtakes smoking), this is a strong indicator of a shift in consumption towards smokeless/new nicotine products.

Case study (official statistics, Great Britain): According to the Office for National Statistics, in 2024 the share of current e‑cigarette users was 10.0%, while the share of current cigarette smokers was 9.1%; that is, for the first time, vaping has overtaken smoking as a share of the population. For context: in 2023, there were 10.5% smokers, and the share of e‑cigarette users is estimated to be approximately 9.8% (5.9% daily + 3.9% occasional).

The sign of "substitution" is also confirmed in other countries with open government data. For example, the New Zealand Health Survey records that daily smoking fell to 6.9% in 2023/24 (from 16.4% in 2011/12), while daily vaping increased to 11.1% in 2023/24 (from 0.9% in 2015/16). Also in the USA (NHIS), official figures show a decrease in the share of adult cigarette smokers from 14.2% (2019) to 11.0% (2023), in parallel with an increase in the share of adult e‑cigarette users from 4.5% (2019) to 6.5% (2023).

USA (official figures NHIS/CDC/Healthy People):
The share of adults who smoke cigarettes decreased from 14.2% (2019) to 11.0% (2023).
The share of adult users of e‑cigarettes increased from 4.5% (2019) to 6.5% (2023).

In fact, we see a picture where cigarette smoking is declining and electronic cigarette use is increasing (or even exceeding smoking in some countries). And this replacement will only continue.