According to estimates, the illicit e-cigarette market accounts for around 36% in Germany and around 58% in France and Poland.

None of these three countries has a comprehensive flavour ban.

Across the EU, the combined grey and black market is estimated at an average of 48%.

A flavour ban remains the exception rather than the rule in the EU.

According to the European Commission, such bans have been introduced in 8 of the 27 EU Member States: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, the Netherlands and Slovenia.

The situation in Ukraine is very different. According to a Kantar study, 93.6% of products on the market show signs of non-compliance with legislation.

The most common violation is flavour, identified in 61% of illicit products.

Of course, it would be incorrect to attribute Ukraine’s 94% illicit market solely to the flavour ban.

The size of the illicit market is influenced by several factors simultaneously: excise duties, the final retail price of legal products, market enforcement, requirements regarding product volume and composition, imports, and distribution channels.

However, in many EU countries where flavours are not banned, excise duties are also lower than in Ukraine.

For example, the excise duty is €0.10/ml in Greece, €0.15/ml in Belgium, €0.18/ml in Italy and Romania, and €0.20/ml in Austria, Spain and Slovakia.

Ukraine is currently in a situation where a flavour ban, relatively high excise duties, and one of the highest levels of illicit trade coexist.

Unless the regulatory approach changes, the market risks moving almost entirely into the shadows.

VARES proposals for reforming the market are available on our website: vares.org.ua/news